What are the odds of that? Mega Millions and Powerball jackpots both exactly $196 million today
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As I put the upcoming jackpot draw into the Silver Lotto’s Powerball draw box from the official site just now, I did a double take.
The Powerball prize amount was an exact match to the Mega Millions: $196 million each.
I knew this was a wild 1-in-several-million chance of it happening, so I set out to search for the odds.
This is what I found from my research.
The odds of the US Powerball and Mega Millions jackpots being exactly the same on a certain day are not straightforward to figure out, due to the various factors that influence the size of each jackpot.
Here are some of the things we have to think about when it comes to seeing how lottery odds stack up:
Starting Jackpots and Roll Increases: Both lotteries start at different base amounts after a jackpot is won, and the amount by which they increase after each draw without a winner can vary.
Ticket Sales: The size of the jackpot for each game is largely determined by ticket sales, which can vary significantly from draw to draw.
Frequency of Winners: The odds of winning the jackpot in both games are quite long (1 in 292.2 million for Powerball and 1 in 302.5 million for Mega Millions), so the frequency with which the jackpots are won can be irregular.
Draw Days: Historically, Powerball draws occur on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Saturdays, while Mega Millions draws occur on Tuesdays and Fridays. This means that the days on which the jackpots can increase are not the same, which affects the synchronicity of their amounts.
Previous Jackpot Amounts: If both lotteries have had different initial jackpot amounts and different growth rates since their last wins, this will affect their current amounts.
Random Chance: Ultimately, the jackpots growing to be the exact same amount would be a matter of coincidence.
You can't just use a basic math formula to figure out how likely this coincidence is, because it's not like flipping a coin where the chances are clear.
It is influenced by human behavior (ticket sales) and the particular rules of each lottery.
Despite these challenges, I can say that it's very unlikely for both Mega Millions and Powerball jackpots to be exactly the same on a given day because of the different factors affecting their growth.
However, it is not impossible, and there have been instances where the jackpots have been quite close to one another, though not identical.
But when you consider all the variables you need to take into account, today is certainly one out of the box.
MY PREDICTION
Because the jackpot amounts are very close, at the next change they could very well match again. The next few days are going to be very interesting!
